The Pivot to Withdrawal: Violence, Community Unrest, and the Erosion of Host-State Support for UN Peacekeeping in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

This honors thesis investigates the factors driving the erosion of host-state support for the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO) from 2018 to 2023. By analyzing official DRC government documents alongside ACLED conflict data, I argue that the relationship between violence and governmental support for MONUSCO is nonlinear and reached a transformative "turning point" in mid-2022. While the Tshisekedi administration initially framed high levels of violence as justification for a more robust, offensive MONUSCO, persistent insecurity eventually flipped this rhetoric, leading the government to instead cite violence as evidence of the mission's failures. I further identify community unrest as a mediating variable for violence, finding that community unrest clusters erode DRC support for MONUSCO only when they meet specific thresholds of lethality and scale, and—most crucially—when viable regional security alternatives exist. This thesis was awarded highest honors by the Curriculum in Peace, War, and Defense.