National and Provincial Lifetime Risk of Chronic Respiratory Disease - China, 2023.

Introduction: Chronic respiratory disease (CRD) ranks among the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in China, representing a major public health challenge. Despite this substantial disease burden, the lifetime risk (LTR) of developing CRD in the Chinese population remains poorly characterized. This study systematically estimates the LTR of CRD at both the national level and across all 31 provincial-level administrative divisions (PLADs) in China from 1990 to 2023. Methods: We estimated CRD-related LTRs across China and its 31 PLADs by age, sex, and year, incorporating CRD incidence hazard, CRD-deleted mortality, and CRD-free survival probability derived from incidence, prevalence, and mortality rates. All data were obtained from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023. Results: : 47.06, 74.92), and the LTR declined with increasing age at diagnosis. Marked geographic heterogeneity emerged, with the western and southwestern regions bearing the highest burden and the northeastern region demonstrating the lowest risk. Conclusion: The LTR of CRD in China has risen substantially since 1990, with marked regional heterogeneity. These geographic disparities underscore the need for precision public health interventions and region-specific resource allocation to effectively curb the rising trajectory of CRD.