Iran’s Militarised Islamic Republic

The Islamic Republic of Iran that entered the war started by the United States and Israel is not the same one that is emerging from it. Iran is now an openly militarised state, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) effectively acting as the sole power broker. Before the war, the US grossly underestimated the IRGC’s willingness and ability to impose costs on the US and its allies, having apparently dismissed the possibility that Iran would be able to close the Strait of Hormuz and disrupt global trade. At home, the IRGC has consolidated its authority over the regime’s other institutions. Abroad, the costs it has imposed have strengthened its hand in negotiations, which, for the first time, the IRGC itself appears to be leading. The IRGC may feel sufficiently emboldened to reject any future proposal that falls short of its maximalist demands.