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Empirical analysis reveals a potential reduction in government revenue and spending under the AfCFTA, affecting fiscal stability.
This study analyzes the potential effects of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) on fiscal stability, using panel data from 54 African economies that have ratified the AfCFTA from 2010 to 2021. The study uses a dynamic system GMM model to address endogeneity, simultaneity, measurement bias, and reverse causality issues. The findings indicate that the AfCFTA agreement may reduce government revenue and spending. Furthermore, the study found that the AfCFTA could lead to an increase in government debt
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Abendin et al. (2025) studied this question.
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