Technogenic impact in the Murmansk region: risk matrix and medico-demographic indicators

The article is dedicated to a comprehensive analysis of the technogenic impact in the Murmansk region and its influence on the health of the population in the Arctic region. The aim of the work is to analyze the industrial influence on the territory of the Murmansk region and to verify the relationship between the identified risks and the health status of the region's population based on the construction of a specialized risk matrix. To assess the scale of the impact of technogenic impact on the natural framework of the Murmansk region in detail, it is necessary to conduct an analysis of certain sources of impact established earlier. The territory of the region is quite extensive; however, anthropogenic influence is distributed unevenly: it is concentrated in several large industrial centers, where leaders in the mining, metallurgical, and energy sectors are located. These giants of technogenic impact establish the ecological profile of the region and create key risks for the vulnerable natural systems of the Arctic. The work is based on a matrix method, with the filling of primary matrices for the Murmansk region conducted using expert assessment. Risks were evaluated on a five-point scale, with one point corresponding to minor consequences and five points indicating catastrophic outcomes. The morbidity assessment was calculated using the localization coefficient defined as the ratio of morbidity in the Murmansk region to the overall morbidity in the Russian Federation. The scientific novelty of the work lies in the author's adaptation of the matrix method to the specifics of the Murmansk region, which allowed the implementation of an algorithm for direct comparison of ranked technogenic threats with indicators of ecologically dependent morbidity in the region's population. The risk matrix allows for the ranking of technogenic threats by degree of danger and scale of distribution, providing a scientific basis for developing strategies for managing environmental safety and minimizing the negative consequences of industrial activities in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation. The most significant impact on coastal infrastructure, social, and economic security comes from large-scale technogenic accidents. The second most significant impact is the effect on the environment from the release of pollutants into the atmosphere and water bodies. The predominant type of morbidity in the Murmansk region is neoplasms (33% higher than the average for the Russian Federation) and respiratory diseases (16% higher than the average), due to the technogenic impact on the environment and human health from the mining and metallurgical complex and fuel oil power plants.