Lap-time dispersion as an aspect of within-race competitive balance in Formula One

Competitive balance in Formula One racing has different aspects. The existing literature measures uncertainty of outcome: concentration of wins, podium finishes, and season points among a few drivers or teams. The drama during the race, captured by measures of overtaking, has received attention recently. We propose another measure to capture the closeness of racing: lap-time dispersion, using detailed, lap-level data on each driver. To illustrate this measure, we compare lap-time dispersion in 16 races on the same tracks, under similar weather conditions, in the 2021 and 2022 seasons. Formula One made important rule changes prior to the 2022 season to improve competitive balance, focused on encouraging closer racing. Using quantile regression methods, we show that 2022 lap times decreased for the slowest drivers and increased for faster drivers, thus reducing lap-time dispersion, with the standard deviation of lap times and the Gini coefficient falling by 14.5% and 11.7%, respectively. The Lorenz curve for lap times also shifted significantly upward, indicating closer racing after the rule changes. Other aspects of competitive balance point in the same direction – lower concentration ratios for laps led and podium finishes – but the concentration ratio for wins rose substantially in 2022.