The Role of Off-Season Play, COVID-19, and the 2020 CBA in WNBA Career Continuity

This paper examines determinants of career exits and breaks in the Women’s National Basketball Association (WNBA) from 1997 through 2024, distinguishing temporary breaks from permanent exits. We employ logit models with player characteristics, per-game performance, and team, position, and season fixed effects. Results suggest that roster instability discourages continued participation and that All-Star selection is positively associated with breaks, consistent with elite players leveraging their status to pursue outside opportunities. Off-season participation in overseas leagues has no significant relationship with career breaks but a weakly negative association with career exits, though estimates diverge by nationality. COVID-19 increased the probability of a career break by approximately ten percentage points.