Elections and Political Polarisation: Challenges for Environmental Agreements

This paper examines how domestic elections and political polarisation shape international environmental agreements. Using a four-stage game to model a bilateral treaty, I analyse how incumbents strategically balance policy preferences with re-election prospects. Results reveal asymmetric electoral constraints: green incumbents must severely temper their ambitions to secure domestic ratification, whereas brown incumbents face fewer constraints and can effectively shift abatement burdens abroad. This asymmetry highlights a strategic delegation motive among voters that inherently advantages brown governments. Ultimately, these dynamics, which are amplified under high polarisation, explain how domestic electoral competition can structurally undermine ambitious global climate cooperation.