Economic Growth Consequences of the Presidential Amnesty Programme: Evidence From Nigeria (2011–2024)

The Presidential Amnesty Programme (PAP) was introduced in Nigeria in 2009 to address militancy and insecurity in the Niger Delta through disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration, with the broader goal of promoting socio-economic stability. Since its implementation, the programme has involved substantial public expenditure on stipends, education, skill acquisition, and administrative activities. Despite its importance for peace building, empirical evidence on the macroeconomic implications of PAP remains limited. This study examines the relationship between the cost of the Presidential Amnesty Programme and economic growth in Nigeria from 2011 to 2024, using Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as a measure of economic growth. The study employs secondary data and econometric techniques to assess whether PAP expenditures have contributed to economic growth or imposed a fiscal burden on the economy. The findings provide insights into the effectiveness and sustainability of PAP spending and offer policy-relevant implications for improving resource allocation toward programmes that support both security and long-term economic development in Nigeria.