Asteroid 99942 Apophis will make a close flyby of Earth on April 13, 2029, with a minimum surface distance of 31,600 kilometers. Existing classical orbital dynamics has completely ruled out the risk of collision. Nevertheless, the asteroid’s rotation and long-term orbital evolution are constrained by weak forces such as tidal coupling and the Yarkovsky thermal effect. Classical theories are inadequate in describing secondary effects including damping induced by space medium. Based on the Real-Virtual Dual Field Theory (RVDT), this paper introduces core concepts including field source weight, primordial field resistance, counteraction rate and dynamic field deviation, and establishes a multi-body field coupling model. We conduct calculations on orbital perturbation, tidal-field coupling analysis and long-term orbital correction for Apophis during its flyby. The results show three key findings. First, Apophis has an extremely low field source weight, and its intrinsic field potential exerts only negligible perturbation on the Earth-Moon-Sun system. The instantaneous orbital offset and velocity perturbation during the 2029 flyby are far below the detection limit of current radar facilities. Second, the coupling of primordial field resistance and Earth’s tidal force will alter the asteroid’s rotational state. The predicted variation rate of its rotation period during the flyby is 0.32 s/day, which represents an observable weak effect unaccounted for in classical theories. Third, primordial field resistance modulates the Yarkovsky effect, leading to an additional decrease of 0.2 meters per year in the shrinking rate of the asteroid’s orbital semi-major axis. The cumulative orbital deviation will reach approximately 14 meters by 2100. All calculations are based on self-consistent derivations from the RVDT axiomatic framework. The relevant predictions can serve as a theoretical reference for radar observations in 2029 and orbital re-measurements in 2036, and provide a supplementary model for the dynamic research of near-Earth asteroids.
Zhongqiang Liu (Tue,) studied this question.