Fate of isoprene peroxy radical constrains the urban photochemical regime

Declining nitrogen oxide (NOx = NO + NO₂) emissions have transformed oxidation pathways in urban atmospheres, with implications for air quality. Organic peroxy radicals (RO₂), key intermediates in volatile organic compound oxidation, typically react with NO to form ozone (O₃). Under lower-NO conditions, alternative RO₂ fates, including isomerization forming highly oxidized organic molecules (HOMs), can enhance secondary organic aerosol (SOA) production. We combine aircraft observations over four major North American cities with geostationary satellite data to characterize isoprene-derived RO₂ fate across urban environments. We infer RO₂ bimolecular lifetimes (τbi) as a proxy for isomerization potential, finding longer τbi (17 ± 11 seconds) in New York, Chicago, and Toronto compared to Los Angeles (7 ± 6 seconds). Satellite measurements reveal that long τbi is widespread across urban North America, suggesting that declining NOx is likely to lead to greater HOM formation in urban regions. These findings indicate that atmospheric models omitting RO₂ isomerization chemistry may incorrectly simulate organic oxidation and the subsequent oxidation state of volatile organic compounds and SOA. : subscript