When American Promises Endure: Examining the Relationship Between Domestic Political Volatility and the Durability of American Commitments in International Peace Negotiations

The credibility of the United States as a third party in international negotiations is often treated as a given. However, domestic political considerations may shape the durability of American promises made abroad. Using a cox proportional hazard survival analysis on an original dataset of American participation in international peace negotiations since 1945, this paper proposes three mechanisms that, when absent from American domestic politics, may result in treaty failure: consensus, constraints, and consistency. I find that whether or not American commitments remain durable directly depends on the extent to which consistency in particular is employed in domestic interactions with regard to foreign policy. This paper contributes to the conversation on American international credibility by suggesting that peace commitments are more durable when they align with American strategic priorities.