Air Traffic Growth and Sustainability Trade-Offs: An Exploratory Study of Belgrade Nikola Tesla Airport, Serbia

Air transport is a key driver of economic development, tourism, and regional connectivity, yet its growth generates increasing environmental costs. Grounded in the catalytic effects framework and the sustainability trade-off perspective, this exploratory study examines the economic and sustainability dimensions of air traffic recovery and growth at Belgrade Nikola Tesla Airport during 2019–2024, a period encompassing a pandemic shock and record post-pandemic expansion. Descriptive statistical analysis and Pearson correlation analysis were applied to six annual data points, supplemented by an approximate CO2 emission estimation. Passenger traffic increased from 6.16 to 8.37 million (+35.9%), and the destination network expanded from 99 to 135 routes. A positive co-movement was observed between passenger traffic and foreign tourist arrivals (r = 0.970; p = 0.001). No detectable association was found between passenger traffic and annual GDP growth rate (r = 0.143; p = 0.79). Estimated CO2 emissions grew proportionally from 0.831 to 1.130 million tonnes, consistent with the proportional growth pattern generated by the fixed-factor estimation framework applied. The passengers-per-movement ratio improved from 87.5 to 97.2, indicating a proximate improvement in operational efficiency. These preliminary findings provide exploratory evidence relevant to Sustainable Development Goals 8 and 9 and may inform future research and policy discussions on the sustainability dimensions of airport development.