Atmospheric Ecological Index Prediction and Grade Zoning in the Qinling Mountains Based on Time-Series Models: A Case Study of Shangluo City

Mountain ecosystems are sensitive response units and critical ecological barriers to global climate change. Located in the mid-latitude climate transition zone, these ecosystems feature high ecological sensitivity and complex driving mechanisms, creating an urgent need to conduct long-sequence, high-precision dynamic assessments in order to support ecological conservation and climate adaptation decision-making. However, three key research gaps remain in the field: first, traditional assessments are dominated by static observation, lacking the capacity for long-sequence dynamic analysis and future projection; second, the coupled interaction mechanism among multiple ecological factors remains unclear, with insufficient quantitative and physical mechanism characterization; third, existing ecological zoning has not been validated for robustness, rendering it incapable of addressing climate disturbances and extreme scenarios. In order to study the regional atmospheric ecosystem, this study takes Shangluo in the eastern Qinling Mountains as the study area and constructs an integrated assessment framework integrating multi-dimensional diagnosis, simulation and projection, dynamic zoning and robustness validation based on long-sequence multi-factor data covering the years 1965–2024. The study aims to reveal the long-sequence evolution patterns and four-dimensional coupling mechanism of the Qinling Mountains atmospheric ecosystem, developing a reproducible and transferable dynamic assessment model. The results show that the study area exhibits the characteristic of elevation-dependent warming, and the correlation coefficients between elevation and air temperature, and between vegetation coverage and air quality reach −0.89 and −0.76, respectively.; ecological quality presents a spatial pattern of being high in the southwest and low in the northeast, with a coefficient of variation across the whole study area lower than 0.03. The results of 1000 Monte Carlo random disturbance validation runs show that even under intensified climate stress, the zoning pattern still maintains extremely strong disturbance resistance. This study reveals the steady-state multi-factor interaction mechanism in mountainous regions, addressing the defects of traditional static assessments that ignore ecosystem evolution and lag effects. The dynamic projection model constructed in this study can be transferred to similar mid-latitude mountainous regions worldwide, providing theoretical and technical support for regional ecological governance.