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This study aims to evaluate the consistency of seismic hazard estimates from physics-based earthquake simulators compared to traditional methods.

Consistency of seismic hazard estimates from a physics-based earthquake simulator: a case study in south-eastern Spain

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Quantitative evaluation of physics-based seismic hazard models in south-eastern Spain, highlighting improvements in hazard estimation accuracy.

This study aims to evaluate the consistency of seismic hazard estimates from physics-based earthquake simulators compared to traditional methods.
Conducted probabilistic seismic hazard analysis using physics-based earthquake-cycle simulations.
Developed physics-based earthquake rupture forecasts from synthetic catalogues.
Compared results against historical macroseismic data and instrumental ground shaking records at 10 sites.
Physics-based earthquake rupture forecasts achieved the best overall agreement with observed macroseismic intensities (p<0.05).
Simulation models outperformed traditional area-source models in predicting ground shaking.
Support for hybridizing physics-based models with traditional PSHA approaches to address uncertainties.

Gómez-Novell et al. (2026) studied this question.

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View Full Paper

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Authors

Quantitative evaluation of physics-based seismic hazard models in south-eastern Spain, highlighting improvements in hazard estimation accuracy.

This study aims to evaluate the consistency of seismic hazard estimates from physics-based earthquake simulators compared to traditional methods.
Conducted probabilistic seismic hazard analysis using physics-based earthquake-cycle simulations.
Developed physics-based earthquake rupture forecasts from synthetic catalogues.
Compared results against historical macroseismic data and instrumental ground shaking records at 10 sites.
Physics-based earthquake rupture forecasts achieved the best overall agreement with observed macroseismic intensities (p<0.05).
Simulation models outperformed traditional area-source models in predicting ground shaking.
Support for hybridizing physics-based models with traditional PSHA approaches to address uncertainties.

Gómez-Novell et al. (2026) studied this question.

View Full Paper

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