Enhancing Agricultural Water System Resilience Under Climate Change: A Socio-Ecological Framework and Future Pathways

Climate change intensifies hydrological variability and threatens agricultural water security. This review synthesizes literature on agricultural water system resilience under climate change through a structured critical narrative approach informed by PRISMA/SALSA reporting principles. We examine four linked domains: resilience concepts and indicators, assessment methods under uncertainty, climate impact and vulnerability evidence, and adaptation/governance pathways. The synthesis indicates a broad shift from engineering-centered water-supply approaches toward socio-ecological resilience frameworks that combine infrastructure, ecosystem processes, farmer behavior, and institutions. Methodologically, deterministic optimization is increasingly complemented by stochastic, robust, integrated-assessment, remote-sensing, and machine-learning approaches, although data requirements, uncertainty propagation, and interpretability remain important constraints. Evidence suggests that crop water demand and irrigation requirements may increase substantially under high-emission scenarios, with acute risks in arid and semi-arid regions. Effective adaptation is unlikely to rely on single technologies alone; precision irrigation, nature-based solutions, climate services, and infrastructure investments require complementary demand-side rules, water accounting, equity safeguards, and participatory governance to avoid maladaptation such as the irrigation-efficiency rebound effect. We identify priority research needs in transparent review protocols, uncertainty quantification, cross-scale governance, farmer decision-making, digital inclusion, and monitoring systems. The review provides a moderated conceptual framework and policy-oriented research agenda for strengthening agricultural water resilience.