Expert Consensus on the Elements Needed for the Design of a Long-Term Population Health Study After the Detonation of an Improvised Nuclear Device

INTRODUCTION: A nuclear detonation will result in thousands of casualties who will need to be monitored for the occurrence of delayed complications from their exposure to radiation. The National Academies of Sciences have published a report on the key elements of the long-term health monitoring of populations after an improvised nuclear device (IND) detonation incident. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We describe the results of a modified Delphi study where we sought consensus among a group of experts on the importance and difficulty of achieving the items in a list of key elements they were presented with. RESULTS: The expert consensus meeting included 27 experts from relevant disciplines and agencies. Consensus was reached in round 3 of the Delphi process on the initial list of 79 items that were generated during the first 2 rounds. Consensus was reached on 59 items regarding the level of importance and on 13 items regarding the difficulty of achieving the element in the design of a long-term health study. CONCLUSIONS: The items identified in this study, including those where consensus was met among the experts, can guide emergency and public health planners in preparing for a long-term population health program after an IND incident.