Bridging the intention–behavior gap: a longitudinal study of the effects of customer satisfaction and self-efficacy enhancement when switching banks

Purpose An increasingly digitized banking market needs agentic consumers. Although many customers intend to switch banks, annual churn rates are considered low by policymakers. A possible explanation for this intention–behavior gap is that customers lack the necessary mastery beliefs when switching banks becomes a digital-only process. This article examines the effects of customer satisfaction, bank-switching intention, and bank-switching self-efficacy enhancement in relation to bank-switching behavior in a digitized market. Design/methodology/approach A longitudinal study that uses moderated mediation analyses and logistic regression analyses to examine how satisfaction, bank-switching intention, and self-efficacy enhancement may explain and predict mortgage bank-switching behavior 12 months ahead (n = 272). Findings Customer satisfaction was significantly associated with bank-switching intention. Intention significantly predicted bank-switching behavior with a large effect (Cohen's d = 1.21). Self-efficacy enhancement increased switching behavior 12 months ahead among consumers with weak switching intentions. Consumers with moderate to strong intentions were less affected. The effect of satisfaction on behavior operated indirectly through intention. Increasing self-efficacy enhancement dampened the mechanism through which satisfaction impacted switching behavior through intention. Practical implications Customers with strong switching intentions had a higher predicted churn rate than customers with weak switching intentions did. However, among consumers with weak switching intentions, the model predicted an annual churn rate of 5.4% if they also had a high score on bank-switching self-efficacy enhancement, compared with a meagre 0.5% if they had a low score on this index. These findings suggest that increased churn in the banking market can be achieved through two distinct policy approaches: Measures that strengthen consumers' switching intentions and initiatives that contribute to enhancing consumers' self-efficacy when switching banks. Originality/value This article contributes to the literature by employing a longitudinal design to examine the effects of satisfaction, intention, and self-efficacy enhancement on partial switching behavior in banking, utilizing a sample representative of the adult population in a highly digitized market.