The impact of export bans on the availability and stability dimensions of food security

Global food prices have surged in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine conflict, posing significant threats to food security worldwide. In response, many food-exporting countries have implemented temporary export bans to stabilize domestic markets. However, robust empirical evidence on the effects of such policies on food security from a multidimensional perspective remains limited. Thus, this study examines the impact of export bans on food security from food availability and stability dimensions by using country-level panel data from 2012 to 2022. The results indicate a significant and negative effect of export bans on political stability, while no significant impacts are observed on food availability. Although countries that adopted export bans experienced a decline in average domestic food prices compared with those that did not, these price reduction effects did not translate into measurable improvements in food availability. More importantly, export restrictions appear to undermine the stability dimension of food security by adversely affecting the social and political conditions through price reductions, heightened uncertainty, distributional tensions, and institutional fragility. These findings suggest that price stabilization through export restrictions alone is insufficient for improving food availability. Instead, export bans function as political-economy shocks that may exacerbate instability. Overall, this study highlights the importance of incorporating social and political consequences into evaluations of food security policies. It underscores the limitations of export bans as instruments for achieving comprehensive food security.