Fluctuation scaling in complex urban systems: Taylor’s law on economically shrinking cities

Urban shrinkage is often linked to instability, yet it remains unclear whether and how inter-urban economic fluctuations scale with city size across shrinkage regimes. Using Taylor’s law, we estimate fluctuation – scaling exponents for four indicators across 34 Northeast Chinese cities (1999–2022) and compare high- vs low-shrinkage groups. We find robust scaling at the system level, but shrinkage reshapes fluctuation scaling selectively rather than uniformly. Fiscal revenue shows a robust high-low contrast, land revenue remains broadly scale-amplified, fixed asset investment acts as a strong amplifier, and employment emerges as the most structurally sensitive dimension. These patterns suggest that shrinkage does not generate uniform decline, but instead reconfigures scale-dependent differentiation across economic dimensions, offering a parsimonious structural perspective on economic resilience.