Weaving Together Ecological Data with Indigenous Knowledge to Model Environmental Factors Impacting Rubus chamaemorus Productivity in Southwest Alaska

The spatial distribution and productivity of subsistence resources are central to food security, nutrition, and cultural vitality in circumpolar Indigenous communities. Yet few studies incorporate Indigenous Knowledge in methodology to monitor subsistence plant species. Here, we apply participatory action research to develop a monitoring system for the culturally and nutritionally important Rubus chamaemorus (atsalugpiaq, salmonberry) near the Yup’ik village of Quinhagak in southwest Alaska. With support from community members, two ground-truth surveys assessed berry productivity at nine sites within Quinhagak’s Traditional Land Use Area. Seventeen interviews identified key themes related to subsistence harvest and highlighted winter meteorological factors important for analysis. We compiled a multi-year dataset including PlanetScope eight-band SuperDove imagery (3 m GSD); airborne LiDAR and satellite-derived DEMs; and four meteorological parameters. Linear regression and multiple adaptive regression splines were tested to evaluate relationships among vegetation health, climate, landscape features, and berry productivity. Model outputs identified chlorophyll-related vegetation indices, particularly MTCI, as strong predictors of harvest outcomes, with higher flowering-season MTCI values associated with greater berry abundance. This work establishes a foundational, scalable approach for the long-term monitoring of Arctic subsistence plants in conjunction with Arctic communities and demonstrates the value of multi-layer data integration in regions historically challenging for remote sensing and ground surveys improving outcomes for regional harvest predictions and increased understanding of possible mechanisms controlling berry productivity in Arctic regions.