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June 14, 2026Social Sciences & Humanities OpenOpen Access

Does fiscal policy amplify or mitigate debt vulnerabilities? Evidence from Tanzania's government revenue and expenditure dynamics

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Authors

EMEnock Mwakalila

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Overview

Examines fiscal policy's impact on debt vulnerabilities in Tanzania, suggesting nuanced fiscal strategies.

Key Points

  • The aim is to analyze how fiscal policy influences public debt vulnerabilities in Tanzania across different debt regimes.
  • Analyzed quarterly data from 2003 to 2023 using Autoregressive Distributed Lag and threshold regression models.
  • Captured short-run fiscal responses and regime-dependent debt dynamics.
  • Examined the impact of exchange rate volatility, inflation, and interest rates on debt dynamics.
  • Increased government expenditure raises public debt in the short run significantly.
  • Under low-debt conditions, increased revenue reduces debt pressures effectively.
  • Under high-debt regimes, fiscal expansion amplifies debt accumulation rapidly.

Cite This Study

Enock Mwakalila (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a2e4524b1cc60ccdea8a602https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssaho.2026.103100
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