Modelling the performance of emerging last-mile modes in 90 European pedestrian zones

This article compares the operational performance and sustainability of drones, autonomous delivery robots (ADRs), and electric cargo e-bikes through a simulation framework developed for pedestrian zones in 90 European cities. For each city, 200 parcels were assigned to evaluate mode-specific routing, energy use, cost, and service performance. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) was used to incorporate stakeholder perspectives. E-bikes combine the lowest energy demand with the low unit cost. ADRs offer the quietest, most space-efficient ground operation, halving drone energy use while matching bike cost, though their pedestrian speed lengthens service time. Drones deliver the shortest point-to-point travel time, 6–11 % quicker than bikes, but at higher externalities. Stakeholder-weighted MCDA scores average 0.83 for bikes, 0.61 for ADRs and 0.18 for drones, placing each mode first in one core attribute: overall sustainability (bike), low-impact night delivery (ADR) and urgent response (drone). The findings suggest policy mixes that fund cargo-bike infrastructure for routine flows, license ADR fleets for quiet off-peak distribution, and reserve drones for time-critical or topographically constrained drops. Such differentiated deployment can support decarbonisation, protect pedestrian comfort and maintain service quality in Europe's historic urban cores.