Seasonal thermal stratification in deep reservoirs easily causes bottom hypoxia and a sharp decrease in oxidation–reduction potential (ORP), leading to the pulsed release of internal phosphorus from sediments. Under climate warming, this has become a hot issue for sustainable reservoir eutrophication control. Taking the Quanmin Reservoir in Southwest China as the research object, this study combined high-resolution profile monitoring and a Box–Behnken response surface experiment to construct a semi-empirical model coupling redox threshold effect and Arrhenius kinetics. Results showed that during thermal stratification, the water body below 18 m formed a significant redox gradient, resulting in a 21-fold vertical difference in phosphorus concentration. The response surface experiment confirmed that ORP dominates phosphorus release, and the temperature (T) effect is strictly redox-dependent: warming only promotes phosphorus release under anaerobic conditions (−50 mV), with a 26% increase in release amount when temperature rises from 10 °C to 30 °C, while temperature has a negligible effect under aerobic conditions (+30 mV). Model fitting yielded an ORP critical threshold of −17.2 ± 4.8 mV and a normalized steepness of 0.033 mV−1, indicating joint control by diffusion and reaction. Based on these results, a synergistic regulatory mechanism of redox threshold and temperature was proposed, providing a quantitative basis for reservoir eutrophication management under climate warming. Maintaining ORP above −17 mV through bottom aeration can effectively block internal phosphorus release from the redox threshold perspective, though practical in situ application is constrained by aeration-induced water mixing and microbial variations, and such precise redox control may save energy, supporting the sustainability of reservoir ecosystems and long-term water quality security.
Wang et al. (Thu,) studied this question.