The Capital Market Outcomes of a State-Led Tax Credit Rating System: Evidence from China

China’s State Taxation Administration introduced a tax credit rating system for enterprises in 2014 with the primary objective of fostering tax compliance and enhancing market transparency. We examine the capital market outcomes of this state-led tax information disclosure initiative. Our empirical evidence shows that higher tax credit ratings signal lower future stock market risk. In addition, compared with industrial peers, firms with an A rating benefit from lower debt (23 basis points) and equity (34.3 basis points) financing costs, alongside expanded access to trade credit. These effects are particularly pronounced among non-state-owned firms, those with lower transparency, and those demonstrating less aggressive tax avoidance. Overall, our findings underscore the positive externalities of this “soft” tax regulatory system by showing that it can serve as a new signaling mechanism that reduces information asymmetry between firms and outside stakeholders. Data Availability: The data used in this study are available from public and commercial databases. Tax credit rating data are obtained from the State Taxation Administration of China. Financial and capital market data are sourced from the China Stock Market and Accounting Research (CSMAR) database and Wind Financial Terminal. All data sources are described in detail in the manuscript. JEL Classifications: H25; M41; G32.