A Multi-Decadal Geospatial Assessment of Urban Growth, Thermal Stress, and Ecological Implications in Finfinne (1995–2025)

Rapid urbanization and climate variability are significantly altering land use/land cover (LULC) patterns and intensifying urban thermal stress in many Sub-Saharan African cities. This study presents a multi-decadal geospatial assessment of LULC dynamics and their impacts on land surface temperature (LST), urban heat island (UHI) intensity, and urban thermal stress in Finfinne, Ethiopia, from 1995 to 2025. Multi-temporal Landsat imagery (TM, ETM+, OLI/TIRS) was analyzed using supervised Maximum Likelihood Classification to map LULC changes, while LST was retrieved through radiometric calibration, NDVI-based emissivity correction, and standardized thermal conversion techniques. UHI intensity was calculated as the temperature difference between urban and surrounding rural areas, and urban thermal stress and ecological quality were assessed using the Urban Thermal Field Variance Index (UTFVI) and Urban Thermal Comfort Level (UTCL). Classification accuracy ranged from 80.29% to 96.34%, with kappa coefficients between 0.75 and 0.95, indicating high thematic reliability. Results show rapid urban expansion, with built-up areas increasing from 10,106 ha (19.4%) in 1995 to 28,780 ha (55.2%) in 2025, largely replacing croplands and forest lands. During the same period, mean and maximum LST increased by 7.41°C and 9.71°C, respectively, while mean UHI intensity rose from 21.40°C to 35.16°C. UTFVI and UTCL analyses reveal a pronounced deterioration of urban thermal conditions, with thermally stressed categories (“Worse” and “Worst”) expanding from 53.7% of the city area in 1995 to 68.8% in 2025, indicating increasing ecological degradation and declining thermal comfort. Built-up and degraded surfaces consistently exhibited the highest LST, UHI, and UTFVI values and the poorest UTCL conditions, whereas forests and water bodies provided significant cooling effects. These findings highlight the dominant role of rapid urban growth combined with background climatic warming in driving thermal intensification in Finfinne and emphasize the need for climate-responsive urban planning and blue–green infrastructure to enhance urban thermal resilience.