Disentangling Climatic and Anthropogenic Drivers of Vegetation Dynamics in the Upper Indus Basin Using Multi-Source Remote Sensing

Vegetation change in cryosphere-affected mountain basins reflects interacting climate and human pressures but their relative influence remains uncertain in the Upper Indus Basin. The novelty of this study is the integration of satellite vegetation, climate variables, human pressure indicators, residual attribution and diagnostic validation in a data-scarce high-mountain basin. We evaluated growing-season Normalized Difference Vegetation Index dynamics and associated drivers from 2001 to 2023 using trend analysis, correlation, Random Forest diagnostics, Sentinel 2 validation, and residual trend analysis. The results showed widespread greening across 96.59% of the basin, with stronger improvement in the lower and central areas. Significant greening covered 69.94% of the basin, while only 1.55% showed significant browning. Precipitation and temperature were predominantly positive drivers of vegetation change, whereas potential evapotranspiration and solar radiation were mostly negative. Soil moisture played a strong regulatory role along elevation gradients. Residual trend analysis provided approximate and method-dependent estimates of the possible anthropogenic influence on vegetation change at 73.09% and climatic drivers at 26.91% rather than direct causal decomposition. These values are approximate and method-dependent estimates, not direct causal decomposition. The findings highlight human-related greening in lower valleys and climate-controlled vegetation responses in high-mountain areas.