Broad Gains, Flat Aggregate: Industrial Structure and Japan's Energy Productivity to 2040

Productivity Research Notes (PRN Series), No. 2615 Under a technology-and-societal-implementation scenario (TSI) to 2040, evaluated with the SBI-FERI BIP model, energy productivity improves across most Japanese industries while the economy-wide measure barely moves (0.9% to 1.0% per year). This note shows that the near-flat aggregate reflects a structural shift toward more energy-intensive activity as manufacturing returns home, offsetting broad-based efficiency gains at the industry level. It extends the argument to emissions, where higher domestic emissions under TSI need not imply higher global emissions.