Turning weakness into deterrence: strategic exposure as a deterrence-amplifying mechanism in Lithuania’s NATO posture

Classical deterrence emphasises denial and punishment, strategies that small allies cannot deliver autonomously. This article develops strategic exposure as a mechanism within extended deterrence: the deliberate publicisation of vulnerabilities and dependencies to shape alliance reinforcement – its speed, credibility, and political resolve – and, in turn, an adversary’s expectations. The framework specifies three mechanisms (performed vulnerability, reputational binding, and normative framing) and identifies necessary scope conditions: alliance cohesion, credible normative alignment, and disciplined messaging. Drawing on directed qualitative content analysis and process tracing of Lithuanian doctrinal texts and elite statements (2022–2025), the article shows how vulnerability is used to mobilise NATO interdependence and frame defence as a shared responsibility. The findings suggest that strategic exposure can accelerate denial/punishment instruments where commitments are institutionally anchored, but may backfire where cohesion is contested, clarifying how managed visibility can augment deterrence in asymmetric contexts.