Heterogeneous Effects of Military Service and Confidence in the Military on Social Trust in the United States

This study examines whether and how military service and confidence in the military are associated with social trust using data from the 1972 to 2024 General Social Survey. Drawing on institutional theory, the analysis specifies a conditional relationship in which the effect of confidence in the military varies by service length across cohorts and periods. The results indicate that race and education function as suppressors, revealing underlying negative associations between military service and social trust among short- and long-service veterans relative to nonveterans in volunteer-era cohorts in the 2010–2024 waves. Moreover, strong conditional effects emerge. Among these cohorts, reporting “hardly any” confidence is associated with markedly lower levels of social trust among short- and long-service veterans. In contrast, confidence in the military shows no significant association among nonveterans. Overall, the findings indicate that the relationship between institutional confidence and social trust is conditional on institutional experience across cohorts and periods.