A Forest Fire Risk Assessment Model Integrating Multi-Source Data and Human Factors and Its Application in Beijing

This study, based on multi-source data fusion and risk index models, has developed a comprehensive methodological system for evaluating the risk of forest fires caused by human factors. The system starts with four dimensions, i.e., exposure, hazard factors, vulnerability, and prevention and control capabilities, and constructs an evaluation framework with 19 secondary indicators. It also establishes single-category risk index models for four types of dominant fire sources: agricultural activities, religious ceremonies, tourism, and power distribution lines. Through weighted synthesis and exponential smoothing algorithms, it achieves daily dynamic risk forecasting. The research took the typical forest areas in the Mentougou, Changping, and Yanqing districts of Beijing as the application demonstration areas, collecting meteorological data, geographic information data, risk census ledgers, online hiking trajectories, and 2530 social survey questionnaires to complete the local parameter calibration and validation of the model. The retrospective analysis of 22 typical human-caused fire cases from 2018 to 2025 shows that the risk percentile of the ignition points in all cases was above 87.8%, indicating that the model has a good risk identification capability. Based on the evaluation results, differentiated control measures for different types of fire sources were proposed. The research results have been integrated into Beijing’s forest fire risk monitoring and early warning system, providing a scientific tool for the refined management of human-caused fire sources.