The (green) hydrogen hype: Growth machines and fictitious capital in Chile's Magallanes region

Green hydrogen and its derivatives have experienced a hype, driven by enthusiasm about their potential as a mitigation option across multiple sectors. Initial optimism is now waning, as reflected in an increasing implementation gap between announced green hydrogen projects and those being realized. However, the speculative dimensions of the industry remain underexplored. Drawing on the concepts of growth machine and fictitious capital, this article investigates the actor coalitions that have driven – and seek to benefit from – the green hydrogen hype. Empirically, we focus on Chile's Magallanes region, where 17 large-scale, export-oriented projects have been announced since 2021, without any final investment decision to date. Our findings show that agencies from energy-import-dependent countries, project developers, local landowners, and national and regional governments mobilized to sustain and amplify the hype in line with their diverse interests. Project developers accumulate anticipated future profits through legally formalized ownership titles, with special purpose vehicles functioning as the central instrument of speculative accumulation ahead of project materialization. Moreover, the regional hype has been fueled by expectations of economic growth, the promise of extending the lifespan of combustion-engine vehicles, and the hope that the region's resource endowments could deliver the cost reductions necessary to make green hydrogen commercially viable. Ultimately, the hype serves to secure ongoing private investment, state support, and public legitimacy, while deflecting scrutiny of project viability and delaying more feasible decarbonization alternatives. Beyond economic viability, the export orientation of these projects generates tensions with local energy needs, raising broader energy justice concerns. Rather than fostering the accumulation of low-emission productive capital, the current trajectory has supported the proliferation of fictitious capital in financialized energy transitions. The analysis underscores the need for governance mechanisms and state capacities capable of selectively concentrating limited public resources in an incipient market for capital-intensive and unprofitable decarbonization solutions.