Infrastructure and Inclusion: How Urban Design Shapes Active Commuting Equity in Medium-Sized Cities

Medium-sized cities in the Global South are at the center of future urban growth, yet their transportation systems remain dominated by car-dependent trajectories. This paper examines how urban infrastructure shapes inclusive access to active commuting using a latent class model across three Mexican cities. We identify two distinct commuter environments defined by infrastructure quality. In low-infrastructure settings, active commuting is concentrated among younger men, consistent with existing literature. In contrast, in high-infrastructure environments, the baseline probability of active commuting is nearly three times higher, so that women and older individuals commute actively at substantially higher absolute rates even though demographic penalties remain present in both environments. Attitudinal variables, often emphasized in policy discourse, are not significant predictors of mode choice. These findings suggest that infrastructure investment is not only a tool for increasing active commuting rates but also a mechanism for expanding mobility access across demographic groups. For rapidly growing medium-sized cities, prioritizing non-motorized infrastructure can play a central role in building inclusive, low-carbon transportation systems.