Key result
Extreme non-HDL/HDL ratios linked to a U-shaped mortality risk, with highest levels raising risk ~7%.
Why the study?
The relationship between the non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio (NHHR) and mortality risk remained unclear in elderly populations with cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome stages 0-3.
Does the non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio (NHHR) predict all-cause and cardio-cerebrovascular disease mortality in elderly patients with cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome stages 0-3?
Cohort (n=424,648)
Does the non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio (NHHR) predict all-cause and cardio-cerebrovascular disease mortality in elderly patients with cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome stages 0-3?
Hazard Ratio: 1.07 (95% CI 1.04–1.1)
p-value: p=<0.001
In elderly patients with CKM stages 0-3, NHHR exhibits a U-shaped association with all-cause and cardio-cerebrovascular mortality, suggesting both low and high ratios are associated with increased risk.
NHHR extremes may warrant monitoring in CKM syndrome; leaves open prospective validation and causal inference.
Background: Cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic (CKM) syndrome typically involves multiple metabolic dysregulations. The non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio (NHHR), as a novel lipid metabolism biomarker, has been demonstrated to correlate with risks of mortality, metabolic syndrome, and chronic kidney disease. However, the relationship between NHHR and mortality risk remains unclear in elderly populations with CKM syndrome stages 0-3. Methods: This cohort study included 424,648 participants aged ≥ 65 years with CKM stages 0-3 from the Guangzhou Older Longitudinal Dynamic Health Cohort. Outcomes were all-cause and cardio-cerebrovascular disease mortality. We calculated the baseline NHHR, categorized participants by their quartiles, and employed Cox models and restricted cubic splines to examine the association between NHHR and mortality. Mediation analysis initially explored the potential role of estimated pulse wave velocity (ePWV) in these associations. Results: During a median follow-up of 4.93 years, 43,457 deaths occurred, including 19,590 from cardio-cerebrovascular diseases. After multivariable adjustment, both the lowest (Q1) and highest (Q4) NHHR quartiles showed higher risks compared with Q3 for all-cause mortality (Q1: HR: 1.13, 95% CI: 1.10-1.16; Q4: HR: 1.07, 95% CI: 1.04-1.10) and cardio-cerebrovascular disease mortality (Q1: HR: 1.09, 95% CI: 1.05-1.13; Q4: HR: 1.11, 95% CI: 1.07-1.16). Restricted cubic spline analyses suggested significant nonlinear (U-shaped) associations, with inflection points at 2.95 and 2.89 for the two outcomes. Mediation analysis suggested that ePWV accounted for approximately 40.16% of the association with cardio-cerebrovascular disease mortality. Conclusion: A U-shaped association was observed between NHHR and the risks of all-cause and cardio-cerebrovascular disease mortality in elderly individuals with CKM stages 0-3. These findings suggest NHHR may serve as an exploratory biomarker associated with mortality risk, but further validation is needed before clinical application. Clinical trial registration: Identifier (ChiCTR2400089945).
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Xu et al. (2026) conducted a cohort in Cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic (CKM) syndrome stages 0-3 (n=424,648). Non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio (NHHR) vs. Third quartile (Q3) of NHHR was evaluated on All-cause mortality (HR 1.07, 95% CI 1.04-1.10, p=<0.001). Both the lowest and highest quartiles of the non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio were associated with increased risks of all-cause mortality (Q4 HR 1.07) compared to the third quartile, demonstrating a U-shaped relationship.
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