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June 18, 2026Progress in Disaster Science0 citationsOpen Access

Enhancing Community Preparedness Through Counterfactual Thinking for Systemic Risks

Reimagining resilience for systemic risks: Enhancing community preparedness through counterfactual thinking of past disaster impacts

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Authors

MSMalith SenevirathneDADilanthi AmaratungaRHRichard Haigh

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Overview

Randomized trial examines community resilience principles, showing how counterfactual thinking can improve preparedness against systemic risks.

Key Points

  • This study aims to apply counterfactual thinking to derive principles for community resilience in face of systemic risks.
  • Examined five major disasters from 2009-2021: Aude floods, L'Aquila earthquake, Manchester Arena attack, Tōhoku earthquake-tsunami, COVID-19 pandemic.
  • Utilized upward and downward counterfactuals to explore enhanced preparedness and worst-case scenarios.
  • Conducted cross-case thematic analysis validated by multi-stakeholder expert focus groups.
  • Identified three higher-order vulnerability categories: structural vulnerabilities, operational deficiencies, and adaptive capacity fragilities.
  • Derived six community resilience principles for better preparedness in complex risk landscapes.
  • Findings indicate systemic risks are influenced by institutional interactions and temporal vulnerabilities, which current frameworks neglect.
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Cite This Study

Senevirathne et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a338a8f630953a74978ca5ehttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100628
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