Dynamic Feedbacks Among Physical Activity, Health Capital, and Household Financial Resilience: A Systems Analysis Using China Family Panel Studies

Physical inactivity and household financial fragility are often studied separately, yet households may respond to health and financial shocks through interrelated behavioral, health, and financial processes. This study examines whether physical activity, health capital, and household financial resilience are dynamically associated in China. Using five waves of the China Family Panel Studies, we construct a household-wave panel and multidimensional indices of health capital and financial resilience. We apply lagged household fixed-effects models, dynamic mediation analysis, and panel vector autoregression with impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition. The results indicate that physical activity is positively associated with subsequent health capital, health capital positively predicts subsequent household financial resilience, and financial resilience has a smaller but statistically significant association with later physical activity. The mediation results are consistent with health capital serving as a partial transmission channel between physical activity and financial resilience. The PVAR results show persistent cross-variable responses, suggesting modest dynamic interdependence among the three components rather than definitive causal evidence of a strong self-reinforcing system. Heterogeneity analyses suggest that these associations are more pronounced among low-income, older-head, and chronic-risk households. These findings extend health-capital and household finance research by showing that health behavior and financial resilience can be examined as jointly evolving household-level processes. The results suggest that integrated approaches to physical activity promotion and household financial protection may be worth further policy experimentation and evaluation, especially for vulnerable households.