Stage-Wise Regulation of Urban Industrial Land and Rural Settlements in a Historical City: intPLUS Analysis and 2035 Scenarios for Jingzhou, China

Sustainable land-use regulation in historical and cultural cities requires balancing heritage conservation, development demand, cropland retention, and urban–rural spatial restructuring. However, the stage-wise reorganization of urban–rural construction land under these coupled pressures remains insufficiently understood. Taking Jingzhou District, China, as a case study, this study uses land-use data from 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020 and integrates stage-wise random-forest analysis, consistency-based interaction-network mining, and multi-scenario simulation within the intPLUS framework. Population, GDP, and areal-water distance layers were matched to the corresponding stage-terminal snapshots where applicable, whereas 2020 POI data were used as contemporary spatial-context proxies. From 2000 to 2020, urban industrial land (UIL) expanded from 16.63 to 46.42 km2, increasing by approximately 179.1%, whereas rural settlements (RS) increased more moderately from 56.59 to 60.27 km2, increasing by approximately 6.5%. The stage-wise RF and interaction-network results show that UIL and RS followed different spatial association structures, with stronger UIL self-reinforcement and stronger RS self-continuity in the later stage. Historical validation showed overall accuracy values of approximately 91% and Kappa values around 0.80, but FoM values remained relatively low, ranging from 0.098 to 0.176. Class-specific mapping accuracy was higher for RS (81.90–82.37%) than for UIL (55.20–66.93%), indicating a weaker performance in locating UIL change. Therefore, the 2035 simulations should be interpreted as parameter-conditioned regulatory comparisons rather than deterministic pixel-level forecasts. The scenario results indicate that the conservation-oriented limited growth was associated with the restricted UIL expansion and better cropland retention under the prescribed demand and constraint settings, while the RS reduction occurred only under explicit village-consolidation and construction-land quota reallocation assumptions. By distinguishing UIL and RS, this study provides differentiated regulation-oriented evidence for sustainable land-use governance in historical and cultural cities.