Key result
Calibrated Gompertz-Makeham model accurately estimates life years lost within ~1.2 years of ERFC data.
Why the study?
Does the HR-calibrated Gompertz-Makeham model accurately reproduce aetiology-independent life years lost estimates from the ERFC cardiometabolic multimorbidity tables?
Does the HR-calibrated Gompertz-Makeham model accurately reproduce aetiology-independent life years lost estimates from the ERFC cardiometabolic multimorbidity tables?
The HR-calibrated Gompertz-Makeham model provides a reproducible and accurate framework for estimating life years lost in high-risk cardiometabolic multimorbidity, useful for actuarial and medico-legal projections.
Objective.—: To validate Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (ERFC) high-risk cardiometabolic life years lost (LYL) tables using Gompertz-Makeham calibrated to hazard ratios, offering a reproducible framework for insurance underwriting and medico-legal life expectancy projections. Methods.—: ERFC LYL tables (91 cohorts; 689,300 participants; HR≥5) benchmarked against Irish Life Tables No. 17 via constant HR∼9.5 multiplier. Gompertz-Makeham generated risk-group survival curves; LYL as baseline-risk differential ages 40-85. Model performance via mean absolute error (MAE). Results.—: Gompertz-Makeham reproduced ERFC high-risk LYL (males MAE 1.21 years; females 1.16 years across 40-85), preserving empirical S-curve without disease-specific adjustments (Table 2; Figures 1-3). Age 40 loses, 20-22 years; age 75, 5-6 years. Conclusions.—: HR-calibrated Gompertz-Makeham provides aetiology-independent LYL estimates within 1 - 2 years mean absolute error (MAE), extending Strauss/Shavelle disability models to multimorbidity for actuarial risk assessment and forensic reports.
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Bernard SILKE (2026) studied Cardiometabolic multimorbidity (n=689,300). Gompertz-Makeham model calibrated to hazard ratios vs. Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (ERFC) high-risk cardiometabolic life years lost (LYL) tables was evaluated on Mean absolute error (MAE) of life years lost (LYL) estimates. The HR-calibrated Gompertz-Makeham model reproduced ERFC high-risk life years lost estimates with a mean absolute error of 1.21 years for males and 1.16 years for females across ages 40-85.
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