A Bayesian Analysis of Accidental Dwelling Fire Incidence, Injury, and Fatality in the Greater Manchester Area

The relationship between accidental dwelling fire incidence and fire injury and fatality was examined using a Bayesian model to estimate the probability of a fire injury or fatality resulting from an accidental dwelling fire incidence under different circumstances of fire incidence (type of accidental dwelling fire, dwelling occupancy type, impairment due to suspected alcohol or drugs, and level of deprivation). Accidental dwelling fire incidence and fire injury and fatality data recorded by Greater Manchester Fire and Rescue Service between 2013/14 and 2023/24 were used to develop the Bayesian model. Overall, impairment due to suspected alcohol or drugs consumption appeared to increase the probability of fire injury across the different types of accidental dwelling fire, and the probability of fire injury and fatality resulting from an accidental dwelling fire was highest for candle and smoking‐related fires.