Impact of Dar Es Salaam Port Expansion on Hinterland Road Network Traffic Performance

Dar es Salaam Port is Tanzania’s principal maritime gateway and a key regional hub serving several landlocked countries in East and Central Africa. Ongoing expansion under the Dar es Salaam Maritime Gateway Project is expected to increase cargo throughput and freight movement, placing additional pressure on the surrounding hinterland road network. This study evaluated the impact of port expansion on the performance of Kilwa Road (T007), Nyerere Road (T024), Mandela Road (T025), and Morogoro Road (T001). A macroscopic traffic model was developed in PTV Visum using traffic counts, road inventory data, cargo throughput statistics, and network information. Origin-Destination matrices were estimated using the Gravity Model and assigned through User Equilibrium traffic assignment. Model validation achieved a GEH value of 1.58 and an R² value of 0.99, indicating excellent agreement with observed traffic volumes. Four scenarios were analysed: existing conditions without port expansion, existing conditions with port expansion, a 20-year forecast with port expansion under a do-nothing approach, and a 20-year forecast incorporating infrastructure improvements. Results indicate that port expansion increases traffic volumes, Vehicle Hours Travelled (VHT), delays, and V/C ratios while reducing travel speeds and LOS. Under the future do-nothing scenario, all major corridors operated at LOS F with V/C ratios of 1.06-1.68. However, corridor widening and dedicated freight lanes reduced average VHT from 310 to 148.75 hours, increased average speed from 17.29 to 34.21 km/h, and improved LOS to A-D. The findings highlight the need to integrate port expansion with strategic transport infrastructure improvements.