Longitudinal analysis identifies key determinants and resource allocation strategies for health systems in LMICs, indicating potential improvements.
Key Points
This study aims to identify determinants influencing health system performance and propose effective resource allocation strategies to achieve universal health coverage in low and middle-income countries.
Constructed a longitudinal dataset for 135 LMICs (2000–2023) using data from WHO, World Bank, IHME, DHS/MICS, and ITU.
Employed fixed effects, system GMM, and structural equation modeling for performance analysis.
Developed mathematical optimization models for efficient resource allocation under budget constraints.
A 10% increase in government health expenditure per capita is linked to a 3.2% reduction in out-of-pocket spending (p < 0.01) and a 0.8-year increase in life expectancy.
Health workforce density (β = 0.24, p < 0.05) and digital health adoption (β = 0.18, p < 0.05) positively affect UHC service coverage.
Reallocating 15% of health budgets toward primary care and digital infrastructure could avert approximately 1.2 million annual deaths (0.9–1.6 million) and reduce catastrophic health expenditures by 18% (14%–23%).