Asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on Iraq’s bilateral trade balance

March 25, 2026Economic Modeling مدلسازی اقتصادیOpen Access

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Key Points

The study aims to investigate the asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on Iraq's bilateral trade balance with selected partners.
Utilized annual data from key trading partners of Iraq from 2008 to 2023.
Employed a nonlinear distributed lag panel autoregressive model.
Calculated long-term coefficients using a pooled mean-group approach.
Found a long-term relationship among variables for some selected countries.
Identified that negative oil price shocks have a more severe negative impact on Iraq's trade balance compared to positive shocks.
Real exchange rate and output gap are significant determinants of the trade balance.

Analyzing how oil price changes affect Iraq's trade balance with partners, indicating economic policy implications.

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Anwar et al. (2026) studied this question.

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