Reframing malaria as a socio-environmental challenge: urban green space, health equity, and the path to resilient urban futures in Ibadan, Nigeria

As cities in sub-Saharan Africa grow quickly, the unequal access to environmental resources has become a major hurdle for urban resilience and public health. This study looks at how unequal green spaces in the city affect malaria risk in Ibadan, Nigeria, which is one of the fastest-growing cities in the region and reflects broader trends in urbanization. Using a decade’s worth of spatial data and geospatial analysis, we explore the link between the availability of urban green spaces, land surface temperatures, and malaria cases in various local government areas. Our findings show a significant decline in green spaces, especially in densely populated neighbourhoods, where coverage has dropped by more than 90%. This loss of greenery is closely tied to rising land surface temperatures (r = –0.94), which is a known factor influencing diseases spread by vectors. Although the direct link between green space and malaria cases is not as strong (r = 0.17), we observe high malaria case concentrations in areas with low green space and high temperatures, showcasing how ecological inequality intersects with health risks. This research shifts the focus on malaria from just a health issue to a socio-environmental challenge rooted in urban development patterns.