Statistical analysis reveals drought probabilities in Jhansi, suggesting improved crop planning strategies.
The weekly and monthly probabilities of deficient rains for Jhansi indicated that maximum drought occurs in the month June (54.17%) and September (51.92%). The probability of occurrence of drought in first two weeks of June is 0.83 while in the last week of September 0.69 indicating proper crop planning. The probability of occurrence of drought once in 4 years in the month of June and that of September is once in 2.5 years. The recurrence interval for two consecutive droughts is 23 years and 13 years for June and September.
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Handa et al. (1994) studied this question.
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