Framework assesses structural reliability of unreinforced masonry walls under gravity and lateral loads, indicating significant uncertainty in safety standards.
This paper presents a framework for assessing the structural reliability of unreinforced masonry walls subject to the combined in-plane gravity and lateral (wind and earthquake) loads specified by the Australian design loading suite and designed in accordance with the Australian masonry design standard, as well as those designed as per the European, US, and Canadian masonry design standards. The interaction between external loading and the structural resistance of masonry walls results in a complex limit state, whereby the already high uncertainties in performance of the structural materials and construction tolerances of masonry are exacerbated by the variability of the stabilising gravity loads. The results of this study found that the high uncertainties in both the structural resistance and lateral loading produced by extreme wind and earthquake events produce annual reliability indices less than the target reliability index specified in both the Australian and international standards for the reliability of structures, and less than the indices found in previous reliability-based assessments of steel and reinforced concrete structures. While further research is recommended to refine the findings of this study, provisional recommendations for revisions to the Australian masonry design standard have been suggested.
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Gooch et al. (2026) studied this question.
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