This conceptual essay presents the Bayo-ACE Model as a formalizable heuristic for analyzing interpersonal decisions under uncertainty. The model proposes that an interpersonal decision should not be interpreted as the result of a single isolated cause, but as a dynamic decisional orientation within a specific scenario, shaped by the interaction between an initial baseline, scenario variables, personal variables, relational variables, activators, resistances, thresholds, blocking conditions, temporal evolution, variable interactions, and the quality of the available information. The model distinguishes three analytical layers: orientation, viability, and reliability. The orientation layer includes variables that move a decision toward or away from a specific outcome. The viability layer includes thresholds and blocking conditions that may enable, limit, or preclude the outcome. The reliability layer evaluates informational confidence and possible observer bias. Formally, the model is represented through a logistic function modulated by threshold and blocking gates. This structure avoids the false addition of percentages, allows the analysis to begin from a non-neutral baseline, incorporates non-linear interactions, and supports qualitative classification into favorable, unfavorable, ambiguous, blocked, or non-estimable zones. The essay develops the model’s conceptual formulation, mathematical structure, application protocol, explanatory cases, methodological limitations, falsifiability criteria, and possible paths for future empirical validation.
Jose Antonio Bayo (Sun,) studied this question.