Environmental constraints on conventional and electric bikes: a mode choice analysis

Abstract Cities in cold-climate regions face unique challenges in promoting cycling as a sustainable transport mode, as both weather and topography create substantial barriers. While e-bikes are increasingly promoted as a solution to physical constraints such as hilly terrain and long distances, evidence on their weather sensitivity relative to conventional bikes remains limited and mixed. Using the 2022 National Travel Survey for Trondheim, Norway, a multinomial logit model was estimated on trips enriched with hourly weather data, and cumulative elevation gain. The results show that mode-specific responses to environmental conditions depend on both the type and the temporal scale of the condition. Of the short-term disruptions, only snowfall produces a statistically distinguishable mode-specific response, with e-bike use more strongly deterred than conventional cycling. Rainfall and wind speed negatively affect both cycling modes, with no statistically significant mode-specific difference. Among long-term seasonal conditions, moderate cold (0–5 °C) does not significantly affect e-bike use, while conventional cycling drops sharply. However, temperatures below 0 °C and darkness reduce the utility of both cycling modes, with no statistically significant difference between them. Additionally, elevation gain per kilometer deters conventional cyclists but does not impact e-bike users. Overall, the findings suggest that e-bikes can reduce some barriers to conventional cycling, especially those related to moderate cold and elevation gain, but they do not fully overcome the constraints imposed by below-freezing temperatures and darkness.