The perception of poverty in a context of fragility – the case of Guinea-Bissau

This article examines subjective poverty in Guinea-Bissau, one of Africa’s most fragile states, using survey data from 190 households. We investigate how individuals perceive their own deprivation and identify the factors most strongly associated with these perceptions. Given the predominance of ordinal variables and non-normal distributions, we apply nonparametric methods (Spearman’s ρ and Kendall’s τ) to test correlations. Results show that housing quality, food security, and education are the strongest determinants of perceived poverty. Notably, education is positively associated with stronger feelings of deprivation, reflecting relative deprivation and aspiration–attainment gaps in a context where opportunities remain scarce. Traditional sociodemographic predictors show weaker effects. The findings suggest that addressing poverty requires not only improving objective conditions but also responding to how people interpret their situation. Policy should target basic housing, food security, and education systems, while narrowing the gap between rising expectations and limited opportunities.