A Comprehensive Theory of Change Framework for Impact Assessment in Education and Training Reform (CToC-IA)

Theory of Change (ToC) is the dominant lens for impact assessment in education and training reform, but its application is undermined by two structural conditions: the fragmentation of relevant scholarship across partially disconnected traditions, and the absence of a literature-grounded specification of the outcome dimensions against which impact is assessed. This paper develops the Comprehensive Theory of Change for Impact Assessment (CToC-IA), a theoretical framework that addresses both conditions through a structured synthesis of nine strands of scholarship (reviewed and named in Section 2). The synthesis maps these nine strands to a three-tier epistemological architecture (foundations, methodologies, and substantive literatures) to deliver four distinct scientific contributions: (i) the literature-grounded identification of six structural field-level gaps; (ii) the derivation of five outcome dimensions forming the core measurement framework; (iii) the architecture itself as a principled integration device; and (iv) the operationalisation of six design principles across three temporal stages via nine analytical components. The CToC-IA is a theoretical framework with an 2 operational architecture, not yet a validated measurement instrument; its empirical validation is identified as the primary future research priority.