Genetics and demographic simulations with captive-bred restocking for the conservation of the lanner falcon

Falco biarmicus feldeggii has experienced increasing anthropogenic pressures over recent decades, resulting in regional population declines. Despite its critical conservation status, the species remains poorly characterized from a genetic standpoint. In this study, we assessed genetic differentiation between captive and wild Italian specimens of F. b. feldeggii to evaluate the genetic consequences of captive breeding. We also simulated alternative population reinforcement scenarios and developed a predictive model integrating demographic trends, population viability, and genetic outcomes based on actual genotypes and alternative mating systems. Our results showed a close genetic similarity between captive and wild specimens, supporting the use of the captive dataset as input for the simulation model. Simulation of various reinforcement scenarios highlighted that juvenile mortality had a stronger influence on the establishment of a long-term self-sustaining population. Furthermore, our model showed that while demographic parameters strongly shaped the trajectories of genetic diversity, selected mating had only a limited and short-term impact in our simulations providing a small contribution to stabilizing early-generation genetic diversity.